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Hardware Technology - Tech uncertainties loom over 2H20

作者: Kevin CHEN,Clint SU
時間: 2020年06月03日
重要性: 一般報告
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摘要: Report title:Hardware Technology - Tech uncertainties loom over 2H20
Analyst:Kevin CHEN,Clint SU
Report type:Industry
Date:20200603
[Summary]

■ Maintain NEUTRAL view on Tech Hardware sector given 1) 2H20 demand uncertainties, 2) new Huawei sanctions
■ Weakened economic condition, Huawei supply chain disruptions could pressure sector outlook in 2H20
■ Top-pick: Xiaomi (1810 HK) given its smartphone share gain, long-term internet service potentials

Demand weakness may persist into 2H20

We maintain our NEUTRAL view on the Tech Hardware sector, as we expect 1) 2H20 demand uncertainties, and 2) Huawei supply chain disruption. We believe end-demand weakness could persist into 2H20, hurt by weakened economic conditions. US unemployment rate reached 14.7% in April, with 20.5mn nonfarm jobs lost. The loss of purchasing power across markets could dampen demand in 2H20. Possible COVID-19 resurgence adds to further risks. We expect global smartphone shipments to fall 9% in 2020, with possibility of further downside (low-to-mid teens % decline). We also saw hyperscale data centers began lowering capex plans (our May 8 note), suggesting softer server demand heading into 2H20.

Watch near term impact from Huawei sanctions

The US tightened sanctions on Huawei (May 15 announcement), this time aiming to restrict chipset supply from foundries such as TSMC (2330 TT). After a 120-day grace period, Huawei may have to rely on its component inventory to make products. We believe Huawei has accumulated more components for its telecom equipment. While we view this as long-term positive for China’s domestic semiconductor industry, Huawei’s current supply chain (Figure 4) could be impacted near term from reduced orders and product mix shift, given the higher specs of Huawei smartphones.

Our key stock view and recommendation

Our top-pick in Tech Hardware is Xiaomi, given its smartphone share gain and internet potentials. We are more cautious on Sunny Optical near term, due to possible Huawei order disruptions.

Xiaomi (1810 HK, BUY) – Despite its 2Q20 weakness (COVID-19 impact in India, Europe), we expect Xiaomi to continue gaining smartphone market share with its price-competitive products. Its 330mn+ MIUI user base represents vast potentials for future monetization.

Sunny Optical (2382 HK, BUY) – Leading supplier and beneficiary of smartphone camera upgrade, but watch near term impact from Huawei order disruptions and strength of specs upgrade, which could be softer than expected amid economic uncertainties.

AAC Tech (2018 HK, NEUTRAL) – ASP pressure remains intense for Acoustic/Haptics this year, but outlook is improving helped by Optics profit turnaround. 6P lens are gaining customer traction.

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